AGP Executive Report

US-China Trade War Escalates: China banned government procurement from 46 US firms and added 10 more to export controls, targeting defense and rare-earth-linked companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, MP Materials and Aveox. Middle East Energy Shock Watch: Oil slid as US-Iran began 60-day peace talks in Switzerland, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly fell sharply after Iran again restricted the waterway. India Markets & IPO Momentum: Indian benchmarks opened higher on easing West Asia tensions; Reliance shares jumped after Jio filed for an IPO, while New India Assurance surged on the NSE IPO spillover. Corporate Deals & Expansion: Aurobindo Pharma won US FTC approval to buy Lannett for $250m, and Straive acquired NextGen Invent to scale AI deployments. AI in Government Procurement: Five firms cleared early screening for India’s AI procurement authoring platform. Business Operations & Policy: Sri Lanka lowered VAT/SSCL registration thresholds for high-turnover service and trade businesses; Malaysia aims to cut business start-up licensing to 14 days. Infrastructure & Power: Kirloskar Oil Engines surged on a 196 MW order for AI data centres; Turkey hit a hydropower record in May.

Corporate Power & Regulation: A US senator warned that AI CEOs are taking “state-like” seats at the G7 table, pushing for tougher limits like breakups or public ownership stakes. Tech & Cybersecurity: A new report says “free” VPNs and streaming apps can route users through residential proxies, raising fraud and reputational risks for business networks. AI in Operations: Amazon unveiled a next-gen AI warehouse robot for Europe, with conversational control and wider floor movement planned for 2027. Platform Accountability: Thailand’s consumer watchdog says it will sue Meta over scam ads on Facebook. Telecom Oversight: Nigeria’s NCC and CAC now require prior approval for telecom ownership changes above 10%, aiming to curb anti-competitive control shifts. Business Climate (UK): Ten years after Brexit, UK SMEs trading with the EU still report paperwork and cost barriers, with many cutting EU business. Energy & Macro: The IMF warned Nigeria’s below-cost electricity tariffs are creating implicit subsidies that strain public finances. Mobility Demand: Tata Motors secured 3,400+ electric commercial vehicle orders, signaling EVs moving from trials to routine operations. Regional Outlook (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe firms in tourism and consumer sectors sounded cautious optimism despite currency, power and inflation headwinds. Local Governance: In India’s Bhopal, authorities removed concrete around trees after residents complained roadworks trapped roots.

Energy Finance & Transition: Malaysia’s Tenaga Nasional (TNB) drew five-times oversubscription for RM2.5bn in 2026 sukuk—RM1bn for solar and RM1.5bn for hydro—highlighting strong investor appetite for “bankable” renewables as NETR targets RM1.2–1.3tn funding over 25 years. Energy Security & Diplomacy: PM Anwar Ibrahim’s Russia and Turkmenistan visits spotlight long-term oil, gas and diesel cooperation, with Petronas signing new Turkmen agreements to deepen upstream presence in the Caspian. Banking & Growth: Ghana’s central bank urged commercial banks to move beyond lending into advisory and market-access support for manufacturing, agriculture and services. Retail Banking Strategy: Bahrain’s NBB leans on a dual model—digital account opening for 90%+ of customers plus the largest branch network—to keep customer contact while scaling apps. Corporate Expansion Models: India’s HRV Pharma is scaling an “API without owning plants” approach via 50+ GMP-approved manufacturers, targeting Rs 1,000cr revenue. Market Signals: Analysts reiterated bullish calls on Pine Labs (target Rs225) and JSW Steel (target Rs1,520) as profitability and capacity expansion narratives gain traction. Business Travel Pressure: An SAP Concur survey finds firms see travel value, but workers report rising strain, especially for employees juggling family needs. Cyber Risk: Malwarebytes says ransomware “Prinz Eugen” can silently encrypt business-critical files without ransom notes, aiming to maximize disruption. Regional Trade: Afghan and Kazakh businesses signed 25 deals in Kabul across food, pharma and banking, as trade targets rise.

Geopolitics & Trade: Trump said he signed an interim Iran deal to avoid “economic catastrophe,” after the pact reopened the Strait of Hormuz and triggered oil-price drops—setting up fresh U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland while Iran has threatened to close Hormuz again. Aviation & Energy: Gulf airlines are rebounding fast, with flights now near 82% of pre-war levels after the interim agreement, though drone risks still disrupt routes. Monetary Policy: Russia’s central bank cut its key rate to 14.25% but warned rates likely stay high as war spending and fuel-driven inflation risks persist. Blue Economy & Security: Malaysia stressed hydrographic data as a strategic asset for safe shipping and supply chains, as it marks World Hydrography Day. Industrial Investment: MKS opened a RM400m Penang factory to expand demand for wafer fabrication equipment, signaling Malaysia’s push into higher-value tech manufacturing. Local Business & Compliance: Australia’s superannuation rule tightens from July 1, requiring weekly payments within seven days—raising cash-flow fears for small cafés and other seasonal operators. Public Health & Regulation: FDA citations rose in Olmsted County (5 companies in 2025), while Wagoner County saw citations return after a prior year with none. Urban Waste Management: Chennai plans to expedite biomining at dump yards and expand tree maintenance to cut pollution and health risks.

Energy & Deals: Petronas marked 30 years in Turkmenistan by signing new production-sharing and 2D seismic agreements, with Malaysia and Turkmenistan reaffirming energy cooperation after PM Anwar’s visit. Geopolitics & Sanctions: A potential US-Iran war-ending deal could unlock billions for Iran, but may also boost the Revolutionary Guards’ commercial empire—raising major hurdles given their terrorism designation. Logistics Tech: Delhivery launched “Delhivery Maps,” an AI mapping and routing platform built for India’s messy address system, now running across its network. Digital Business Services: Oman’s Business Platform is expanding self-service options for registrations, ownership transfers, and merger workflows as digital transaction use rises. Policy for Local Industry: Türkiye approved a digital economy pact with Turkic states and is drafting rules to push local product quotas for chain stores and define shopping festivals. Market Access & Reform: Cuba passed 176 reforms to open more sectors to private investment, including private banks and real estate. Small Business Pressure: Auckland’s K’ Rd faces closures as costs and weaker spending bite, while UK SMEs say Brexit still raises trade barriers. AI & Security: Equifax execs warn AI is changing business security risks, but can also be used defensively.

Energy & Trade Partnerships: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim framed Petronas’ Turkmenistan gas-field push as a “real partnership” built on technology transfer and long-term cooperation, not just commercial deals. Business Regulation Ease: Abu Dhabi’s ADRA is cutting fees and late-renewal fines for economic licences and offering 50% discounts on eligible permits via its TAMM platform until Aug. 15, 2026. Corporate Moves: TWL Holdings’ unit bought a 45% stake in Fairise Odyssey for RM42m to expand property investment. Markets & Litigation: Microsoft investors face a class action tied to alleged Copilot/Azure claims; Embecta is hit with a securities class action after a Q2 selloff. Corporate Governance Watch: India’s Supreme Court flagged a “deep-rooted nexus” between banks, asset reconstruction firms and borrowers over a Rs 1,537 crore stressed-loan settlement. Labor & Visas: H-2B visa delays are forcing Door County tourism businesses to cut hours and close days. Local Economy & Compliance: Bulawayo warned of revenue loss and public health risks from unlicensed businesses after 1,715 inspections found widespread violations.

AI & Telecom Monetisation: Mavenir and Red Hat launched an integrated AI platform for telecom operators, letting carriers sell AI services via token-based consumption using existing billing systems. Healthcare Tech Competition: China’s national medical imaging AI contest is expanding into Southeast Asia, with a Vietnam promotional event ahead of an Aug–Oct 2026 run in Guangxi. Energy & Trade Disruption Watch: Reports say major Gulf airlines are operating near pre-war levels as ships begin transiting the Strait of Hormuz again, easing pressure on oil and gas flows. Sanctions & Business Networks: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Hezbollah-linked Lebanese officials and a business network, targeting alleged fundraising, contracts and front companies. SMB AI Deal: Wayflyer acquired Conjura to accelerate AI-driven ecommerce analytics for small businesses, including a natural-language interface for merchant queries. Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s National Assembly approved 176 reforms to restructure the economy, boost decentralisation and adjust sectors from tourism to banking under US sanctions. Regional Business Climate: Malaysia climbed in the IMD competitiveness ranking, citing trade efficiency, government/business improvements and AI/semiconductor momentum. Local Economy Pressure: UK borrowing surged in May above forecasts, raising debt concerns as spending and debt-interest costs bite.

Industrial Expansion in Bosnia: A feasibility study for Sarajevo Canton points to Doglodi near the Miljacka River as the best site for the region’s biggest business zone, with up to 130 hectares planned—aimed at attracting large logistics investors as existing zones are small, scattered, and near full. Cybersecurity & AI: A new look at how AI is reshaping cybersecurity highlights both opportunity and risk, as businesses rush to adopt tools faster than implementation can keep up. Aviation MRO Growth: Turkish Airlines’ Turkish Technic plans to expand third-party maintenance, adding hangar capacity at Istanbul Airport and pursuing wider component-pool deals with Boeing and Airbus. US Incentives for Defense Tech: Colorado approved $14.5m+ in job-growth tax credits, heavily favoring aerospace and defense, including a major “Project Mercury” expansion tied to semiconductors and space demand. Energy Transition Investment: UAE climate fund Alterra co-invested in Peru’s Inkia Energy, backing renewables that already supply about a quarter of Peru’s electricity. AI Geopolitics: An expert warns countries building AI capabilities must manage alliances, export controls, and “trusted partner” networks as AI becomes a geopolitical system. Small-Business Payments Policy: An Iowa roundtable weighed the Credit Card Competition Act’s potential impact on fraud protections, security, credit access, and rewards. Cybercrime Watch: The FBI’s IC3 reports 2025 losses of $20.9bn, with phishing/spoofing driving the most complaints. Green Economy Milestone: LSEG says the global green economy hit a record $10tn in market value in 2025, with green revenue firms outperforming.

Tax Policy Shift (Australia): Treasurer Jim Chalmers lifted the CGT discount threshold, expanding eligibility so 98% of active businesses can get a 50% CGT discount, while also outlining broader carve-outs for startups and testamentary trusts amid business backlash. Private Markets Push (Wealth Tech): Titanbay appointed Marcel Rohner (ex-UBS CEO; UBP board chair) to strengthen its private-markets infrastructure as European wealth clients increase allocations to alternatives. Energy Security (Iraq): Iraq is advancing a floating LNG terminal plan with U.S. firms to convert imported gas into power-plant fuel, aiming to stabilize the grid during peak demand. Telecom Leadership (Ericsson): Ericsson named David Hammarwall Head of Business Area Networks, effective Oct. 1, 2026, as it targets 5G, AI and the path toward 6G. Healthcare Expansion (Avio Smart Market Stack): Avio Smart Market Stack hired diagnostics veteran Sandeep Pandya to drive global growth of its molecular diagnostics portfolio. SME Hiring Support (New Mexico): New Mexico reimburses up to 50% of ag internship costs (cap $15,000 per intern) to expand farm and ranch workforce pipelines. Business Growth Events (Africa): The Business Show :: Africa and Access to Finance LIVE returns to Johannesburg in September, spotlighting funding access for SMEs and entrepreneurs. Crypto Compliance (EU): BitGo Europe rolled out MiCAR-compliant Crypto-as-a-Service to help VASPs transition as national regimes expire. Trade & Investment (Qatar-France): Invest Qatar and MEDEF International held a Paris seminar to attract French firms into Qatar’s diversification push, especially IT, manufacturing, digital and financial services.

AI Wealth Transfer: Sen. Bernie Sanders unveiled a plan to fund a sovereign wealth fund for Americans via a one-time 50% tax on the largest AI companies’ stock, aiming for direct public payments and major social programs. EU Carbon Costs: Ukraine’s exporters face a steep jump from today’s low carbon price to EU-style emissions pricing, with calls for predictable, gradual carbon-price increases and better domestic support for decarbonisation investment. Trade & Finance Links: Agrobank says it’s pushing trade facilitation and payment settlement ties between Malaysia and Uzbekistan/CIS by year-end to boost agricultural and commodity flows. Business Tax Fight: National City, California is weighing a tiered business license tax tied to revenue (plus gross receipts for some landlords) to close a $13m deficit—drawing sharp pushback from local business groups. Small Business & AI Ops: Reports highlight the rise of “shadow AI” and autonomous AI agents as small firms try to automate core work, raising data, compliance, and IP risks. Qatar IP Strategy: Qatar launched a national intellectual property strategy push to strengthen innovation and protect the full R&D-to-IP cycle. Post Office Rescue Exit: South Africa’s Post Office is moving to end business rescue after improved losses and revenue, with a new board set to take over. U.S. Insurance Regulation: Michigan advanced a bill to ban “predatory” price optimization by auto and home insurers.

AI & Productivity: Google Cloud says UK small and midsize businesses have doubled AI use over the past year, but only 24% reach “advanced” use—leaving an estimated £35bn in unrealised productivity gains by 2030. Fintech Expansion: Alaan launched what it calls the UAE’s first AI-native business bank account, bundling corporate cards, invoice automation, and domestic/cross-border supplier payments in one Shariah-compliant workflow. Payments & Merchant Tools: Visa partnered with Mintoak to give Asia-Pacific acquirers a single platform for in-store and online payments plus reporting and merchant engagement. Capital Markets: Four companies opened IPOs in India aiming to raise ₹252.5 crore, while six firms launched Hong Kong offerings targeting up to HK$19.8bn. Energy & Fiscal Policy: Offshore Energies UK urged faster rollout of the North Sea Oil and Gas Price Mechanism, arguing it could add £13.4bn in taxes over the next decade. Digital Economy Growth: GSMA forecasts mobile tech could add $290bn to Africa’s economy by 2030, with the key challenge shifting from coverage to usage. Business Resilience & Risk: Robinhood cut about 10% of its workforce despite reporting “strong” business conditions, highlighting cost discipline even in good times. Local Business Impact: Ghana plans Invest Ghana Business Forums in Canada and the US to convert World Cup visibility into foreign investment pipelines.

Middle East Peace & Trade: Philippines President Marcos welcomed a US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it could help normalize global economies and ease petroleum-driven price spikes. Shipping Disruption Watch: Japan’s MOL CEO said traffic recovery through Hormuz may take weeks to a month as shipping and insurance firms regain confidence. AI Talent Gap: Gartner reports supply-chain firms are rapidly hiring for AI-skilled roles—AI-demand jobs up 387% since 2023—while companies struggle to find workers who understand both logistics and AI. EU Sustainability Rules: The EU’s sustainability standards draft for non-EU firms signals what US businesses may face next, after earlier EU cuts to reporting requirements. Corporate Compliance Deadline: Ghana’s Registrar of Companies issued a hard June 30 deadline for annual returns and business name renewals, warning of penalties and possible delisting. Local Business Pressure: Lafayette’s Bertrand Drive project will be reevaluated after business backlash over roadway designs. Rwanda Growth: Rwanda’s economy grew 10% in Q1 2026, led by industry, services, and agriculture. Business Risk & Security: Saudi SASO temporarily barred vehicles from 29 manufacturers for missing 2026 supply plans tied to fuel-economy rules.

MENA Family Business Spotlight: Forbes Middle East put 10 Qatari family firms in its 2026 Top 100 Arab Family Businesses list, highlighting how incumbents are pushing R&D, digital change and sustainability to stay competitive. Energy & Geopolitics: Markets cheered the US-Iran tentative deal to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices and lifting global stocks, while negotiations on nuclear issues continue. Infrastructure Investment: Venezuela signed an agreement with General Electric to rebuild its failing power grid as daily blackouts persist. India Solar Boom: Rooftop solar startup SolarSquare raised $53m (Series C) led by B Capital to expand cities and scale home solar plus batteries. AI for Regulated Work: Celonis and deepset launched a sovereign AI platform for mission-critical sectors, aiming to keep data and deployment under customer control. Media Deal: Fox agreed to buy Roku in a cash-and-stock deal worth about $22bn, combining live content with Roku’s streaming reach. Cyber Risk: UK research found 82% of firms had a supply-chain cyber incident in the past year, with most still struggling to map supplier exposure fast. India Capital Markets: Turtlemint set an IPO for June 19 (up to ₹883 crore), while GIC Re shares slid after the government opened an OFS to divest up to 5%. Turkey Defense & Tourism: Turkish firms drew attention at Eurosatory, and Ankara expects its NATO summit to boost events and tourism.

AI & Data Readiness: Salesforce is buying Fin (formerly Intercom) for about $3.6B to expand autonomous AI customer service, while a separate midmarket report shows AI is in production but scaling and governance lag—often blocked by security, privacy, compliance, and messy data. Energy & Geopolitics: A US-Iran framework deal to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is already easing oil and gas prices, offering short-term relief to cost-of-living pressures. Business Restructuring: West Marine is closing 59 stores after filing for bankruptcy-backed debt restructuring, signaling pressure in retail demand. Policy & Taxes: Australia’s NAB boss warns proposed capital gains and trust tax changes could hurt Australia’s ability to attract risk capital. Cross-border Deals: TRANSEO Summit in Luxembourg highlighted growing demand for trusted international networks to move cross-border M&A. Local Resilience: Students in Colorado are running paid cybersecurity mini-internships to help small businesses with audits. Tech Sector Shift: Fujitsu is exiting legacy hardware in ASEAN and pivoting to AI and consulting. Design & Growth: Scotland’s Architecture and Design Scotland unveiled its 2026/27 business plan and new strategic partnerships, betting on design for climate and housing priorities.

Geopolitics & Energy: The US-Iran peace deal is easing oil-market stress, with Brent sliding toward a three-month low and markets rallying on hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening—though shipping and supply-chain normalization may take months. UK Cost Pressure: A new RAC Foundation analysis pegs the Iran crisis’ hit to UK drivers at about £4bn via higher petrol and diesel prices, including roughly £670m in extra VAT. Business Regulation (India): SEBI says it will review delisting rules and startup listing norms to make exits and access to capital markets smoother. Corporate Governance (India): Belrise Industries appointed key executives to handle materiality and disclosure responsibilities under SEBI rules. Capital Markets (Romania): Net investments rose 4.8% in Q1, up to 41bn lei, driven by machinery and equipment. Inflation & Policy (Malaysia): Malaysia’s Economy Ministry expects inflation to stay within 1.5–2.5% in 2026 and plans a parliamentary statement on energy and supply-chain impacts. Trade & Compliance (China): China’s market regulator summoned Walmart China over Sam’s Club food-safety issues. Workforce & AI (US): California tech workers face worsening hiring conditions as companies demand AI skills, widening the divide between AI-hired talent and the broader job market. Local Business & Growth (Pacific): A NZ business mission of 37 leaders heads to Fiji to expand trade and investment in areas like tourism, renewables, logistics, and ICT. Education Integrity (US, Ohio): Ohio lawmakers advance a bill targeting businesses that sell academic work to students, with civil penalties proposed.

Saudi-China Infrastructure Deal: Saudi Minister Majid Al-Hogail opened the Saudi-Chinese Contractors Forum in Shenzhen, aiming to deepen cooperation in housing, construction, smart cities, and tech transfer under Vision 2030. Indonesia Investor Jitters: Indonesia’s economy is under strain from high energy costs and policy moves that critics call “resource nationalism,” while the rupiah slides and investors worry about central bank independence. Travel Cash-Flow Crunch: Tourism firms are pushing for integrated digital booking and payment systems as fragmented platforms and delayed settlements squeeze working capital. China Energy Security: Western media focus on China’s crude import decline, but the story highlights China’s strategic reserves and diversified supply zones as its buffer against shocks. Nepal Banking Stress: Nepal Rastra Bank warns of weak governance, bad loans, and report-tampering by banks, while share-collateral lending jumps 15.5% to Rs 162.53bn. Nepal Industrial Payments: Nepal’s industrial estates see a payment rush after government warnings, with Rs 10m+ cleared and hundreds of firms still owing Rs 880m+. Urban Safety & Infrastructure: Kathmandu plans more street and high-mast lamps with GIS monitoring, and Nepal’s Nagdhunga–Sisnekhola Tunnel is set for mid-July opening. Canada Privacy & Consumer Data Bill: Canada schedules a technical media briefing on the Protecting Privacy and Consumer Data Act, signaling tighter rules for businesses handling data. Business Tech Hiring: Flipkart expands its AI and fintech leadership with new VP roles to scale data science, payments, and trust/safety systems. Local Business Disruption: A shooting at a Hopaka Street business in Honolulu left two injured, while a major fire in Columbia Borough destroyed multiple homes and a business.