AGP Executive Report

Russia-Tech Theft: European officials say Kremlin-linked spies and shell companies are intensifying efforts to steal Western defense and technology know-how, warning firms they could get pulled into war-linked cyberattacks. US Airport Customs Clash: Major airline and business groups warn that ending customs processing at “sanctuary city” airports like Newark could strand travelers and disrupt cargo and supply chains. AI Cost Pressure: A new wave of AI pricing is rising as “agents” drive higher operating costs, pushing big players toward monetization and potential IPO plans. Google Insider Case: US prosecutors charge a Google employee over alleged use of confidential “Year in Search” data to profit via Polymarket bets. Corporate Moves: iHuman plans to buy assets tied to All Knowledge and Perfect Lingo for RMB94m, expanding its AI-powered learning apps. Business Markets Watch: Analysts stayed bullish on several HK-listed tech and consumer names (including Bilibili and Kuaishou) while issuing mixed calls elsewhere. India Policy Watch: A parliamentary panel is set to review exam testing formats and the NTA/NEET system, as transparency and access concerns continue.

ASEAN Digital Deal: Negotiators have wrapped up talks on the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, with signing expected in November and a goal of pushing the bloc’s digital economy toward $1T by 2030 (possibly $2T). EV Policy Friction in Nepal: Nepal’s EV tax rules based on “motor peak power” are drawing controversy as testing capacity, measurement consistency, and certification systems lag. Real Estate Pressure in Nepal: The Nepal Land and Housing Development Association is urging clearer rules and faster procedures, including easing land ceiling and removing legal hurdles that are squeezing developers and limiting housing supply. U.S.-Iran Crypto Crackdown: The U.S. seized about $1B in Iranian-linked cryptocurrency as part of a wider pressure campaign targeting Tehran’s funding channels. Payments Upgrade in Georgia: Visa opened its first “Business Lounge Powered by Visa” at Kutaisi International Airport, aiming to boost premium travel and tourism. Nigeria Economy Narrative: President Tinubu says Nigeria is recovering and no longer depends on federal bailouts for salaries. UAE Growth Snapshot: UAE GDP rose 6.2% in 2025, with non-oil growth up 6.8%, reinforcing diversification. Retail Headwinds: Inditex’s Zara India business reported weaker FY’26 results as competition intensified, while The Gap’s Old Navy continues store closures. Meta Wearables Push: A leaked memo points to an AI pendant in testing next year plus “Wearables for Work” and expanded AI glasses. Social Media Settlement: Meta, Snap, TikTok and YouTube agreed to a $27M settlement with a Kentucky school district over social media harms.

Digital Economy & AI: India is ranked the world’s 5th most digitalised economy in 2026 and 4th on an AI “CHIPS” index, but the report flags gaps in private AI investment, compute infrastructure and commercialisation. Energy & Investment: Sumitomo (via STP) will back UK utility-scale battery storage projects totaling about 694 MW, while Serbia signals major state energy spending (EUR 14.4bn, 2028-35) to expand generation and grid links. Regional Trade & Business Platforms: ECOWAS pushes to operationalise the ECOWAS Business Council to deepen regional integration and boost private-sector trade. SME Policy: Moscow Region plans reduced income tax for small tech firms, valid to 2031. Local Business Disruption: Waterloo, Iowa faces daily East 4th Street bridge closures for repairs; Cocoa Beach’s Tiny Turtle fire damaged nearby businesses. Corporate Finance: India’s banks see RoA slipping to about 1.1–1.2% in FY26; Hon Hai/Foxconn approved a record cash dividend. Energy Security: India orders oil firms to hold LPG reserves for at least 30 days of national demand. Business Climate & Growth: A UK panel outlines a 25-point plan to revive the West Midlands night-time economy.

M&A & Portfolio Focus: IFF agreed to sell its food ingredients business to CVC Capital Partners for $4.3B, keeping a 10% stake as it narrows toward higher-growth, higher-margin segments. Corporate & Legal: Ukraine moved to seek pre-trial detention for businessman Kostiantyn Hryhoryshyn, aiming at an international arrest warrant tied to an alleged energy-sector embezzlement scheme. Economy Watch: Canada’s GDP contracted in Q1, reviving recession talk as economists debate whether the slowdown meets “technical recession” definitions. Energy & Policy: Ukraine also earmarked an extra UAH 10.8B for weapons purchases, repairs, and scaling battlefield technologies, funded via taxes and gambling/lottery fees. Business Environment: Louisiana passed multiple aerospace-friendly bills into law, including tax exemptions and critical-infrastructure status for spaceports. Payments & Procurement: AirPlus International and Kresus Technologies, with Mastercard, launched a platform to give European firms more control over indirect spending via virtual cards, approvals, and ERP reconciliation. Local Business Climate: Halton Business Awards shortlist hit a record with 58 entrants, while Brattleboro’s outdoor sector is set for a June 10 event to boost regional collaboration. Trade & Food Costs: The World Bank says West Asia conflict effects on food prices in 2026-27 should be smaller than early Russia-Ukraine shocks, though food prices are still projected to edge up.

Trade & Investment: India and Canada launched a trade and investment forum to deepen business links and push negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by year-end. Payments & SME Growth: iFAST Global Bank rolled out SEPA capabilities for its multi-currency business current account, aiming to simplify cross-border euro payments for SMEs. AI in Private Markets: EQT partnered with Google Cloud to accelerate AI adoption across 300+ portfolio companies, focusing on deploying AI agents in day-to-day operations. Energy Transition & Finance: Malaysia’s central bank reported US$129.73bn in official reserves at end-March 2026, while RAM Ratings kept a positive outlook on Malaysia’s power sector as renewables and grid-scale storage expand. Banking Watch: Maybank posted softer 1Q 2026 earnings but maintained guidance, with analysts flagging deposit competition and asset-yield pressure. Business Sentiment: The Philippines’ business confidence fell again in April as inflation and the Middle East conflict raised operating-cost worries, though firms expect a partial rebound later in the year. Regional Business Platforms: The 23rd China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning will spotlight digital and green growth opportunities under CAFTA 3.0. Corporate Moves: Mapfre is expanding its large-risks underwriting push in Europe and the US, adding cyber and parametric insurance growth areas.

Aviation & Cargo: IATA says West Asia conflict cut global passenger demand 3.4% y/y in April, with international demand down 5.3%—while air cargo demand rose 4.0% y/y, led by Asia-Pacific trade flows despite Gulf hub disruptions. Corporate Earnings (Malaysia): Berjaya Corp’s 3Q FY2026 net loss widened to RM176.23m as revenue fell; IJM Corp’s FY2026 net profit slid to RM3.24m amid FX losses and inventory impairments, though it declared dividends. Healthcare Manufacturing (Malaysia): Pharmaniaga won a RM281.7m, three-year MOH contract to supply insulin nationwide, boosting recurring public-sector revenue. IPO Watch (Malaysia): MM Computer Systems’ ACE Market IPO was oversubscribed 42.12x ahead of its June 11 listing. AI Regulation (US): Illinois moved to require independent third-party safety audits for large frontier AI developers, aiming to fill federal guardrail gaps. Small Business & AI Tools: Anthropic is pushing “Claude for Small Business” with pre-built workflows for common SMB tasks. Trade & Investment (Uzbekistan–Afghanistan): ACCI says Uzbekistan private-sector deals with Afghanistan top $5bn in eight months, spanning textiles, food, minerals and pharma. Workforce Policy (US): Maryland’s FAMLI paid leave rollout is set for 2028, with employer decisions starting late 2026. Energy & Infrastructure (UK): Kent water outages are forcing businesses to close and raising operational risk during peak season.

AI Cost Control: Google Cloud India tells businesses to track AI “token” spending closely as cloud-based AI gets pricier. Energy & Data Centers: Malaysia’s TNB is speeding grid connections for data centres via its “Green Lane” approach, cutting timelines from 36 months to as little as 12. Healthcare Investment: Mevion Medical Systems signs to supply Vietnam’s first proton therapy system, aiming for late-2027 operations. Trade & Investment: Philippines’ Marcos secures about $3.4B in Japanese commitments for manufacturing, tourism infrastructure, renewables and supply-chain projects. SME Support: The U.S. SBA opens an extra Business Recovery Center in Saipan to help firms apply for disaster loans after Typhoon Sinlaku. Business Climate: Italy’s economy is set for modest growth, with the IMF warning on weak productivity and aging. Local Business Pressure: South Africa’s Endumeni chamber objects to proposed seasonal electricity tariff hikes. Regional Dealmaking: India and Canada reaffirm a $50B trade goal as CEPA talks continue in Toronto. Disaster Impact: Angeles City building collapse leaves nearby businesses shut or disrupted amid ongoing clearing operations.

AI & Business Ops: Market Logic Network says it’s embedding AI agents into CRM, customer workflows, and reporting so AI runs inside day-to-day operations, not as a standalone tool. Cyber & Email Trust: ZDNET highlights SPF, DKIM, and DMARC as must-have DNS checks to stop legitimate business emails landing in spam and to reduce domain hijacking risk. Trade & Tariffs: Chilean salmon firms are seeking refunds on U.S. duties after a Supreme Court ruling struck down the tariff basis, with CBP opening a voluntary refund process. Policy & Small Business: Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev signed new small-business support rules, including simplified taxes and VAT administration changes. Local Economy & Crime: Chicago’s latest smash-and-grab hit a South Side shop, underscoring rising security pressure on small retailers. Circular Economy: Mexico’s APR and ANIPAC signed an agreement to push recycling-focused plastics design and stronger circular markets. Energy Access: Sierra Leone’s Geres launches a rural clean-energy project aimed at powering small businesses and cooperatives. Sports & Commerce: Cary’s Soccer Tournament is expected to generate $10M+ for the local economy, boosting hotels and small vendors.

AI Governance & Automation: UiPath’s Feiran Hao says most firms can’t get past AI pilots because they’re not orchestrating tools into one governed workflow—linking CRM updates, data extraction, approvals, and system triggers so AI works across the whole enterprise, not in isolated pockets. Small-Business Cyber Risk: A Paducah chamber seminar warned owners that AI can power convincing scams, while insurers stressed clear internal rules for AI use. Tariff Refund Backlash: US state fiscal leaders are demanding transparency over Trump tariff refunds, arguing consumers paid the higher prices but may not see the money. Climate Pressure on Operations: Businesses are urged to prepare cooling contingency plans as El Niño odds rise, with heat threatening workers, equipment, and summer demand. Local Business Strain: Surveys in Canmore flag 89 firms at risk of closing or relocating, tied to taxes, housing, commercial rents, childcare, and permits. Energy Shift in Africa: Coverage highlights a fast move toward solar, wind, and battery storage as governments chase cheaper, quicker power. Trade & Investment: Canada announced a Team Canada mission to India, targeting AI, critical minerals, nuclear, renewables, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure.

Sanctions & Finance: The UK moved to sanction 15 companies and three individuals accused of helping Russia dodge restrictions, including crypto-related networks allegedly routing funds via Kyrgyzstan. Energy & Industry: Petronas is set to take full ownership of Malaysia’s Pengerang refining and petrochemical operations from Saudi Aramco, signaling a push for a bigger regional hub. AI & Digital Economy: China is pivoting June toward global business and trade as it rolls out “six networks” and expands 5G to power the next digital economy. Small Business Support: New Brunswick tabled a bill to create an energy regulator “advocate” for residents and small businesses, while the Santa Barbara chamber launched BEAM to pair entrepreneurs with mentors. Local Disruption: Garden Grove’s hazmat evacuation zone is shrinking as crews work to contain a chemical tank issue. Health M&A: Eli Lilly agreed to buy three vaccine firms for $3.8B to expand its pipeline.

Geopolitics and costs: Iran-war disruptions are still rippling through Turkey’s factories, with plastics and packaging costs jumping sharply and shortages forcing firms to reroute imports. Energy shock: Oil and gas volatility is feeding inflation fears and squeezing businesses; in Australia, 72% report negative impacts, mostly from fuel costs and supply interruptions. Dealmaking: MinterEllison is advising Anglo American on a US$3.875bn sale of its Australian steelmaking coal business, continuing a broader divestment push. Markets and momentum: India’s metal stocks are broadly higher today, while Nigeria’s economy grew 3.89% in Q1, led by agriculture and services. Tech and infrastructure: Schneider expects India data centers to outgrow its core business as AI-ready demand accelerates; CoinQuant is rolling out trading infrastructure for the agent economy. Business resilience: BSNL says revenue rose to Rs 25,000 crore and EBITDA margins improved after operational upgrades. Healthcare and manufacturing: AGC Biologics was picked to manufacture a microbial therapy for lumbar disc herniation, and Nephros is positioning for more recurring water-filtration demand. Local business spotlight: Astley Hire in Leigh marks 60 years, while The Quays Shopping Centre in Newry has returned to its owner after administration.

Courtroom Crossroads: A Mumbai court reserved interim relief for businessman Sudhir Valia in a Rs 1,000 crore fraud case tied to alleged illegal transfers of mortgaged HDIL properties, with the matter returning on June 1. Energy & Markets: Malaysia’s Tenaga Nasional reported 1Q FY2026 results, while Qatar’s QIA joined as an anchor investor in Greece’s PPC capital raise; in Egypt, the FRA approved licences for eight non-banking financial firms. Business Momentum: Allianz Malaysia lifted 1Q 2026 net profit to RM227.35m; Uzbekistan’s business activity index rose 6.5% in April, and Samarkand discussed packaging projects with Chinese firms. Security & Disruption: In Evansville, an arrested repeat offender allegedly stole two TVs from a business loading dock; in Canada’s Peel region, police arrested 17 suspects in violent extortion targeting South Asian businesses. Local Economy Pressure: New Zealand business groups warned gas shortages are forcing closures, even as a loan scheme to help firms transition away from gas is rolled out.

AI + Infrastructure Deals: Malaysia’s VentureTECH is backing Pacton Technologies to scale its FishSpeak aquaculture platform across ASEAN, while All In FutureTech Alliance is set to buy a controlling stake in HyalRoute Fiber-Optic for about US$2.31b, betting on fibre networks as AI demand accelerates. Energy + Markets: Oil and airline stocks rallied as US-Iran peace-talk hopes eased crude prices, but India’s fuel pain is back—petrol and diesel prices were hiked again, lifting OMC shares. Policy Pressure: Nepal’s hydropower push faces legal roadblocks; IPPAN argues for a “sunset law” to pause obstructive rules to hit a 30,000MW goal. Local Business Climate: Singapore reported 6% growth early 2026 on AI-chip demand, while Australia’s business confidence slid sharply amid tax-change fears. Business Expansion: Puravankara secured a 14.57-acre Bengaluru land parcel (GDV ~Rs 2,300 crore), and Liberia’s US-linked business leaders formed a plan for an American Business Association in Liberia.

Budget Pressure Test: Bangladesh’s FY27 budget arrives as private investment and industrial output wobble, with business credit growth at a historic low—raising the stakes for any credibility signal to restart hiring and expansion. Trade & Deals: India’s Piyush Goyal heads to Canada with a 150-member delegation to push CEPA/EPTA-style trade momentum and new investment links. Aviation Premium Push: Saudia takes delivery of its first Airbus A321XLR, betting on a high-end 24-suite business cabin to widen long-haul appeal. Energy Transition: Libya’s renewable push gets fresh attention, with solar and wind framed as a path to cut oil dependence. Local Enforcement & Risk: From Greece’s shrinking snowfall reshaping mountain economies to Yemen approving new food-industry standards and Nepal flagging water-pipeline damage from coordination failures, the week keeps spotlighting execution gaps. Small Business Reality Check: Cash-flow strain and rising costs keep showing up in coverage, alongside practical marketing and AI tools aimed at keeping firms afloat.

Disaster Relief: The U.S. SBA opened a Business Recovery Center on Saipan to help firms and nonprofits hit by Super Typhoon Sinlaku, with walk-in support starting May 26 for disaster-loan applications. Trade & Diplomacy: India’s Piyush Goyal heads to Canada (May 25–27) to push CEPA talks with a 100+ business delegation, aiming to lift bilateral trade toward $50B by 2030. Energy & Industry: Coal India is planning coal-to-syngas hubs near mines and industrial users to ease gas-supply strain from West Asia conflict. Finance: LIC topped India’s financial firms for Q4 profit, netting Rs 23,420 crore (+23%), lifting investor sentiment. Policy Watch: India is in “advanced consultation” on whether to remove an 11% cotton import duty after industry warned of a supply-demand gap. Security & Business Risk: A Malaysian micro-business owner says an online scam led to bank account closures and a loan disbursement block tied to a “blacklist.”

AI & Semiconductors: Nvidia’s autonomous driving push is still growing, with Q4 revenue for the auto business up nearly 40% to $2.3B, though momentum is cooling in the latest quarter. Public Safety & Justice: In India, an airport scanner mistake flagged common spices as heroin, leaving an Indian businessman jailed for 57 days before a court said the state’s testing capacity delayed release. Local Business Boosts: Kansas City small retailers are leaning into the World Cup with themed food and drinks to pull in fans and lift sales. Sanctions Pressure: Kyrgyzstan suspended 50 companies after US and UK flags tied them to Russian sanctions evasion, signaling tighter enforcement as Europe cracks down. Energy & Trade: India’s Oil Corporation says any fuel shortage is limited and temporary, blaming distribution imbalances and seasonal demand. Policy & Diplomacy: Spain joined an international call warning firms not to bid on the E1 West Bank settlement project, citing legal and reputational risks. GCC Security: GCC’s chief reiterated Gulf stability as a pillar for global maritime security and the world economy.